Lulu told me to write a blog

November 14, 2012

I should try to record a couple of my thoughts each day, I might make this private though.

I suspect neuroticism (the big 5 component) is just a variable that fundamentally arises when you analyze personality survey questions: “does the person feel subversive towards tests like this?” It’s the only dimension out of the 5 that doesn’t map to myers briggs, and it’s the one that’s hardest to find correlations with (among everyday behaviors of people).

I owned FB 25 strike Jan14 calls going into today

When the intuitive relationships between things are apparent or visible, they are usually describable. Computational complexity theory and the theory of natural selection play a similar role in my life, although I have less to say about the latter. And yet I have no hole in my mind when it comes to theoretical physics (although it is a topic that intellectually interests me). Why? Is it because I have no intuition as well? Maybe because I differently threshold the degree at which I allow things to be true.

Lulu is reading my old 9th grade copy of A Room of One’s Own, which I horrendously annotated. I wonder if that is related or unrelated to her suggestion that I write my thoughts down.

Does NFLX’s ranking algorithm still mainly try to predict how many stars you will rate each movie? Not sure, but if so that doesn’t seem so great; you may correctly do so but it’s an operation with no intent to the overall experience of the user.

I like the new business direction of JCP in certain logical ways (although I don’t think they have satisfactorily answered the long-term margins question), but I don’t particularly like their new branding. E.g. I think the new logo tries to own more, but succeeds in owning less. I looked at the numbers and there’s no real evidence that new shops sustainable outperform old shops, although the new approach may still be superior for various reasons.

The republicans are hoping to scare everybody about the fiscal cliff (which is more of a slope than a cliff). If they do so then maybe the market will threaten to crash on obama not compromising and obama will then be forced to compromise to prevent a panic. It’s not going to work here though.

I think momentum signals in stocks are like the golden ratio, they need context. Just like anything describable with a polynomial will have some fibonacci effect, anything describable by a differential equation will have some momentum effects.

It feels private to me to explain my ideas in too much detail, and it feels routine to me to have many ideas. To merely list a few thoughts and ideas as I have them is fairly uninteresting, I suppose. I obviously should write longer form content, but to some specific end.

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